Weekend Predictions: 11-21-08
Posted on November 21, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Box Office Predictions | Leave a Comment
So, I think we’re in for the second biggest weekend of the year at the box office. Not only are Bolt and Twilight opening on 3,400+ screens apiece, but Madagascar 2 and Quantum of Solace are still out there. Despite my predictions, I wouldn’t be completely surprised if either Bolt, Twilight, or QoS were tops for the weekend. Each of those movies is focused toward a different demographic, and with Bolt and Madagascar the only movies really competing for the same audience, everyone should walk away happy.
My extra fancy spreadsheet has all the gory details.
Bolt is the widest release, on 3,651 screens. It seems like there hasn’t been a lot of marketing for Bolt, but that just may be because I haven’t been watching a lot of children’s programming lately. Back in 2005, I would’ve said the same thing about Chicken Little and it opened at $40 million. The non-inflation adjusted total I calculated for Bolt came out to $38,084,620.95. Giving it the benefit of the doubt, I’ll leave it at that (and maybe nix the whole inflation adjusting idea permanently). If I had increased the totals for inflation, the result was much higher than I’d ever think it could go. Since I feel the same about Chicken Little’s marketing, I’d say a similar total would be a good guess, with the difference in my prediction attributable to Madagascar 2.
First off, the City of Forks and all the local business owners should be writing daily letters of gratitude to Stephenie Meyer. Before Twilight, Forks was generally a place you went through, not to. They’re damn lucky that Meyer randomly picked them based on the fact that they get a lot of rain. The old people are probably sending her hate mail because now they’ve got all these teenage idiots gawking around town and occasionally standing on their lawn, which is the thing old people hate above all else.
Trying to predict the totals for Twilight is like arguing with your wife- no matter the logic you use, you’ll probably be wrong. The calculated total I got was $20,215,753.98, which would have been closer to $10 million if Robert Pattinson hadn’t been in the last two Harry Potter movies. That’s a good number against it’s $37 million budget and cast of relative unknowns, but in actually Twilight might have already made that much in pre-sales. My only recourse, which has served me fairly well, was to double the total, but $40 million looked too small, so I tripled it. That’s a prediction of $60,647,261.95. Lofty, but maybe still too small.
QoS should pull in another $35-40 million and Madagascar another $15-20 million. If these two hit the high end and my predictions pan out, that’s $160 million just between these four. It won’t be close to the $253 million of The Dark Knight’s opening weekend, but the $180 million of Wall-E’s is within reach.
Tags: box office, budget, business, Harry Potter, opening, prediction, release, screens, vampire, WALL-E, weekend
Related posts
Lost Genre: Mad Dash
Posted on November 19, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Lost Genre | Leave a Comment
So, A Mad Dash is easily identified- it’s a comedy with a cast full of famous actors, celebrities, and comedians who are all frantically chasing after some prize. There are a ton of zany, incoherent situations manufactured to get as many laughs as possible. The plot is the least concern and only needs to find a way to connect all the silly set pieces. You’ll usually find plenty of B-list actors, athletes, and a foreign actor or two.
It’s a Mad Mad Mad Mad World
This is the cream of the crop of Mad Dash movies. It gets into it’s fair share of silliness, but It’s a Mad Mad Mad Mad World features just about every comedic actor alive and one of Hollywood’s greatest actors in the leading role. Spencer Tracy heads a cast that includes names like Jonathan Winters, Ethel Merman, Milton Berle, Buddy Hackett, Jimmy Durante, Mickey Rooney, Sid Caesar, Phil Silver, and on and on. There are also a bunch of cameos- the Three Stooges, Don Knotts, Buster Keaton, Jerry Lewis, Jack Benny, and on and on. The plot centers around some motorists who stop to help a dying car crash victim who imparts on them the hidden location of $350,000 he stole years before. The motorists agree to amicably retrieve the money, but distrust immediately sets in and it becomes every man, including the old bag, for himself. Director Stanley Kramer, who also made The Defiant Ones and Judgment at Nuremberg, wanted to make a comedy to end all comedies, but the common criticism is that the movie buckles under all the comedic weight. If you’re willing to sit through the gags that fizzle out and endure the loooong run time, it is a funny movie.
Rat Race
Rat Race wanted desperately to be a modern Mad Mad World. It had the same basic premise (the main difference being that the participants are unwittingly part of a high-stakes game where gamblers bet on who reaches the money first) and features a cast of recognizable names- Whoopi Goldberg, Cuba Gooding Jr., Jon Lovitz, John Cleese, Rowan Atkinson, Kathy Bates. But the thing it’s lacking is the overall comedic experience of the cast of Mad Mad World. A good chunk of the movie follows Breckin Meyer and Amy Smart- not exactly heavyweights in the laughter department. Director/producer Jerry Zucker can do over-the-top comedy well (Airplane!, The Naked Gun), but when he has to reign it in, the results have been mixed (Ruthless People, Ghost, First Knight). The movie does have it’s moments, but it just doesn’t have the enveloping hilarity of Mad Mad World.
The Cannonball Run
You know it’s a Mad Dash when you see Burt Reynolds, Roger Moore, Dom DeLuise, Jackie Chan, Terry Bradshaw, Jamie Farr, Farah Fawcett, Peter Fonda, Jimmy The Greek, and Dean Martin all in the same movie. The Cannonball Run is based on the real life illegal coast-to-coast car race and features many of the same vehicles and antics from the real race. Director Hal Needham, a former stuntman, was a participant in the real Cannonball Run, so as outlandish as some things may seem, much of the movie is based on actual events. This was one of Needham’s many collaborations with Burt Reynolds, for whom he had served as the stunt double on many movies. Needham liked to show outtakes during the closing credits, and Jackie Chan got his inspiration for the same from this movie.
Tags: athlete, cameos, car, Comedy, Hollywood, premise, race, Run, three stooges, zany
Related posts
Assessing The Weekend: Quantum Of Box Office
Posted on November 18, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Box Office Predictions | 2 Comments
So, the slow Summer-Fall transition period is officially over. For the first time since the middle of August, moviegoers spent more than $100 million at the movies on back-to-back weekends. Being the only new release, Quantum of Solace was easily the big winner at $67,528,882, a full $32.5 million ahead of second place Madagascar 2. QoS became the biggest opener for the James Bond series and serves as further proof that people are digging the new take on the world’s most famous secret agent.
QoS handily beat my $56,176,149.86 prediction. After seeing this weekend’s results and trying to see what I could have tweaked in my formula to get a better result, I hit upon the idea of increasing the totals in the formula to account for inflation. I adjusted the totals on the spreadsheet to present day totals by using the yearly increase in average ticket prices. When I made those changes, and still doubled the calculated total, I got $69,508,428- off $2 million. I’ll try this going forward, but looking back, my predictions that were right on would now be high. One thing that stuck out when adjusting the totals- Die Another Day’s opening weekend jumped to $57,361,453. Looking at that number, it could be argued that, at the time, there wasn’t a need to give Bond a makeover. But seeing how things have gone since the change, I don’t think anyone would take back the decision.
Would anyone like to guess which movie already in release picked up the most screens this past weekend? That would be The Dark Knight, increasing 221 screens to 347. The second biggest was Miracle at St. Anna, picking up 56, for a total of 76. Not sure what that means, but I thought it was interesting that one tripled and the other quadrupled screens when it looked like they should be on their way out. And Fireproof has now made 60 times it’s production budget.
Next weekend should be even bigger, with the release of Bolt and Twilight, QoS pulling in another $35-40 million, and Madagascar with another $15-20 million. In fact, it could be the biggest weekend for the remainder of the year, and may end up only second to the weekend of The Dark Knight’s premiere.
Tags: box office, James Bond, opening, prediction, release, screens, series, ticket, weekend
Related posts
Public Domain Movie Of The Week: Night Of The Living Dead
Posted on November 17, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Public Domain Movie of the Week | Leave a Comment
So, the modern zombie, the mindless, shambling, flesh- and brain-eating undead ghoul, was born in Night of the Living Dead. Although not called zombies in the movie, they encompass everything that identifies a contemporary zombie. And like the best horror movies, the movie works on many levels- a splatterfest, a comment on capitalism, or an idictment of Cold War politics and the Vietnam War. It broke taboos by casting a black actor as the heroic lead of an otherwise white cast.
Night of the Living Dead has spawned numerous copycats, sequels, and remakes, with another remake set for filming next year. Everyone wants to take a crack at making a zombie movie, but no one has been able to top the original.
You can snag a decent copy from The Internet Archive.
Tags: Dead, Horror, remake, splatterfest, zombie
Related posts
4 Totally Awesome Movies Based On Board Games, And 1 Crappy One
Posted on November 17, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Film History | Leave a Comment
So, in honor of the announcement that Ridley Scott is going to direct a movie based on Monopoly, I’ve compiled a list of the greatest movies based on board games. But until Hasbro releases their spate of movies, there aren’t yet five movies based on board games, so I was forced to take some liberties.
Clue
A movie based on a board game sounds like something uninspired that’ll be aimed squarely at children. But the sole movie based on a modern board game flies squarely in the face of that. Clue is a very funny movie. It takes the basic premise of the the game and translates it into an entertaining little movie. The clever script and great cast (Tim Curry, Madeline Kahn, Christopher Lloyd, Leslie Ann Warren, Martin Mull, Michael McKean) create a slapstick spoof on the whodunit movie.
Searching For Bobby Fischer
How do you make a great movie? You take an accomplished, award-laden cast (Joe Montegna, Joan Allen, Ben Kingsley, Larry Fishburne, William H. Macy, Laura Linney), an award-winning writer/director (Steven Zaillian), a storied cinematographer (Conrad L. Hall), and base it on one of the world’s greatest board games- chess. The true story follows the life of chess prodigy Josh Waitzkin as he begins to learn competitive chess and struggles to maintain his values in the face of corrupting pressure from his father and teacher. Professional chess is an immensely complicated affair, but the story (from the book by Waitzkin’s father) makes the chess elements easily digestible and focuses primarily on the young Waitzkin’s quest to maintain his humanity and not become the maniacal chess machine that was Bobby Fischer. It’s a feel good movie that never has to resort to manipulative tricks to accomplish that feat.
The Seventh Seal
If there’s a list that includes movies about chess, The Seventh Seal must be included by default. The story centers on a knight (Max von Sydow) returning from the crusades. Upon his return, the knight discovers his homeland is ravaged by plague and finds Death waiting for him. But the knight desperately wants to go home and see his wife again, so he challenges Death to an epic game of chess to win a reprieve. The movie’s stark, haunting cinematography, foreign (to most people) language, and ruminations on life and death make this the poster child of “serious” “art house” movies, but the story of a man who has survived the horrors of war only to find himself trying to squirm out of death’s icy grip and return to his home is timeless.
Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey
And if there’s a list that contains The Seventh Seal, then that movie’s greatest parody must be included- Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey. After Bill and Ted are killed by their evil robots selves, they initially escape Death by giving him a wedgie and running away. When they later find themselves in Hell, tormented by the Easter Bunny and Granny S. Preston, Esquire, the duo realize their only way out is to challenge Death to a contest. As Bill and Ted repeatedly win the games, Death continuously ups the ante (best 2 of 3, 3 of 5, 4 of 7) until the tandem has beaten him at Battleship, Clue, electric football, and finally, Twister. A defeated Death agrees to take them to the greatest scientist in the universe- a Martian named Station, in Heaven. The movie is totally ridiculous, but infinitely enjoyable.
Dungeons & Dragons
In the world of role-playing games, the story starts and stops with Dungeons & Dragons. Until the year 2000, the immensely popular game and it’s adventures had never made it to the big screen. D&D fans were no doubt beside themselves with joy upon hearing of the movie’s release. They were no doubt disgusted after seeing the end result- a sloppy, poorly made fantasy “adventure” (aren’t adventures supposed to be exciting?) with no real ties to D&D mythology, save the title. Jeremy Irons phones in his performance and Justin Whalin and Marlon Wayans are overmatched by the… well, everything. You could’ve looked at this as being a movie aimed at a narrow niche audience, but the next year The Lord of the Rings proved that fantasy is for everyone. If you ever get an inkling that you should watch Dungeons & Dragons, I’d advise you to just go read the latest copy of the Monster Manual. Learning the subtle differences in various goblinoid races is way, way more interesting.
Tags: award, death, disgust, Dragon, game, Horror, Monopoly, monster, parody, prodigy, War
Related posts
Weekend Predictions: 11-14-08
Posted on November 14, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Box Office Predictions | Leave a Comment
So, the title says predictions, but there’s really only one prediction to make. This weekend’s lone, lonely new wide release is the 22nd entry in the James Bond pantheon, Quantum of Solace.
My handy spreadsheet is just a click away.
QoS is a bit of a hard movie to predict. It’s certainly the most anticipated Bond movie and should set records for the series. The biggest opening weekend thus far belongs to Die Another Day, at $47,072,040. Casino Royale might have taken that title, but there was plenty of doubt about the choice of Daniel Craig to play Bond and whether or not the series really needed a do-over, biting into the opening weekend totals. Trying to use the trending of the opening weekends to aid in the prediction was problematic because of CR’s dip. There wasn’t anything fancy about my calculation- I gave director Marc Forster a pass for not having four movies and deducted $2 million for Olga Kurylenko only having two movies. I did include the production company (EON Productions) for the first time, but since they only had Bond movies to their credit and those movies were already peppered throughout the formula, it didn’t have a significant impact. The calculated total came out to $28,088,074.93, which will be way low. Since I couldn’t come up with a more scientific way to change the total, I went with the same thing I did for High School Musical 3 and doubled it. My prediction is officially $56,176,149.86.
I was a huge James Bond fan growing up, so much so that I even played the James Bond pencil-and-paper role playing game, but my enthusiasm really dropped off after License to Kill. When the series picked up again with Pierce Brosnan, it looked to me like one big commercial- not helped by all the “Buy James Bond’s” car/watch/electric razor commercials. I recently rewatched Casino Royale and it still just didn’t feel like a James Bond movie. If you changed the character’s name, you would never know it wasn’t some generic espionage thriller. Like it or not, for 20 movies James Bond wasn’t a brooding action hero. That Bond relied on his wits, gadgets, ridiculous stunts, and the occasional karate-chop. He was more savvy than brawn, more suave than brute. The new Bond is a more impulsive Jason Bourne or a humorless John McClane. That’s not to say it’s necessarily a bad thing, it’s just not the same thing.
Tags: character, commercial, formula, James Bond, opening, prediction, series, weekend
Related posts
Ridley Scott To Roll The Dice On Monopoly
Posted on November 12, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under News | 1 Comment
So, it almost seems too stupid to be true. Ridley Scott is a respected, award-winning director known for his attention to detail and stylish direction. He’s made two of modern sci-fi’s greatest movies: Alien and Blade Runner. He brought the epic sword and sandal movie back with Gladiator. His name generally indicates a movie will have strong artistic content.
It is with total WTF stunned puzzlement that I pass along that Scott is attached to direct a movie based on the Monopoly board game. I can’t really think of a more overtly commercial movie for a director to make. It reeks of being a pointless money grab and I can’t really see why Scott would feel the need to direct or why the studio wouldn’t want to hire someone cheaper they could push around. Scott is a also producer, but Hasbro and Universal will have more say in the production.
I don’t really have a problem with the movie itself, it’s not the first board game made into a movie, but are we going to see more of our “great” directors doing this kind of shit? Will Martin Scorsese direct a movie about underground Pictionary tournaments? Will Jean-Luc Godard sign on for the big-screen adaptation of Guess Who? Will Roman Polanski take on the multi-layered story of The Game of Life? This is a bad/dumb/stupid/demeaning/ridiculous precedent to set.
Tags: adaptation, artist, board, director, game, money, Monopoly, precedent, studio
Related posts
The Karate Kid To Be Remade, Miyagi-san Weeps
Posted on November 11, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under News | 4 Comments
So, remakes, redos, reboots, reimaginings, retreads, do-overs, mulligans, reworkings, and the raping of back catalogs are all the rage in Hollywood. With all the dignity of a crane kick to the face, Columbia Pictures has announced they are going remake The Karate Kid. It will be a vehicle for Will Smith’s soon-to-be-more-famous son/protogé Jaden.
I don’t have a particular attachment to The Karate Kid, other than enjoying it as a kid and judiciously using ‘wax on, wax off’ and ‘Daniel-san’ over the years, but this kind of news really depresses me. It seems a very needless and random remake. What movie can we remake that stars a little kid? The Karate Kid hasn’t been redone yet, yeah, let’s do that! If there was some big karate renaissance, I could at least understand it. Since Jaden Smith is reportedly a martial arts buff and Will Smith one of the producers, you kind of get the vibe that maybe he told daddy he wants to be the Karate Kid and Big Willie made it happen.
Aside from the general sense of loathing for this project, I’m really miffed that the Variety article states that there is an “eccentric mentor.” I hope that was just the author’s words and not the basis for the character. I don’t think eccentric is the right word for a wisened immigrant with high moral character who wants to teach young men discipline and to believe in themselves.
The Cobra Kai Dojo is not going to be happy about having their legacy crapped on.
Tags: dignity, discipline, Karate, kick, Kid, mentor, remake, vehicle, Will Smith
Related posts
Assessing The Weekend: The Formula Breaks Down
Posted on November 11, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under Box Office Predictions | 3 Comments
So, this is the first time in a couple weeks that one of my predictions hasn’t been within spitting distance of one of the top two movies. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa crushed my $42 million prediction with a $63,106,589 weekend and Role Models bested me by almost $5 million. But hey, this formula is still taking shape, and like the stock market, past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Movies like Madagascar don’t really work well with the current layout of my formula. It had the fifth biggest opening weekend ever in November. Using recent movies to predict box office returns doesn’t do much when that movie exceeds most of the movies used in calculating it. Of the 22 movies I looked at, only three met or out-gained the actual total or per screen average for Madagascar. My problem is that I want to use reasonable mathematical calculations in the formula that can be applied to all movies. I’ve been thinking about adding the production company to the calculation, and adding DreamWorks’ last few movies would’ve helped some. I might have to come up with some tweaks to the formula based on the type of movie, like for an animated children’s movie I could discount the actors’ contribution and increase the genre and distributor. There are still a few animated movies coming up for me to try a few things.
Role Models gives more weight to the idea of not punishing a director for having fewer than four movies. If I hadn’t deducted $4,000,000 for director David Wain’s lack of experience, I would’ve been within one million of the total.
The total for all movies for the weekend was $127,686,291, up over 70% from the previous weekend. In fact, the totals for just Madagascar and Role Models beat the entire box office from last weekend. It was the biggest weekend since August 1-3, when The Dark Knight was still king and most of the other big Summer movies were still playing.
Next weekend should be interesting as there is only one new wide release- Quantum of Solace. It would have a good weekend no matter what, but it’ll be huge with no competition.
Tags: box office, competition, experience, formula, opening, performance, prediction, production, release, weekend
Related posts
By Crom! Brett Ratner Has A New Franchise To Kill
Posted on November 10, 2008 by Furious
Filed Under News | Leave a Comment
So, is it just a coincidence that Brett Ratner’s last name sounds an awful lot like Rat Turd? Maybe his ineptitude isn’t his fault and that phonetic relation has caused him to take on personality traits not of his last name, but those associated with rat turds. Disgusting, vile, potentially harmful to human beings- sure, those all apply to rat turds or Ratner.
With that in mind, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Ratner is trying to finagle his way into directing a new Conan movie. The movie will be a [SURPRISE!] origin story about the fantasy world’s most famous barbari